Israel's rough trade fell 35%, its polished 18%: the leading leg fell hardest
First-half figures give the categorical split this paper has carried only in aggregate: polished exports $625.7m, down 22.3%; rough exports $191.2m, down 34.6%. The rough legs together fell 35.3% against 18.1%.
By The Diamonds Desk
What changed
Israel's diamond trade has been reported all year as one number, and it has now been broken into four.
What it means
- The figure that should worry Ramat Gan is $208.3 million of rough imports, not $625.7 million of polished exports. A cutting centre's rough intake is its order book, and Israel's fell 35.8% while its polished output fell 22.3%.
- The gap between those two rates is the trade saying what it expects to sell next year. Rough imports were 40.3% of polished exports a year ago and are 33.3% now, on this desk's arithmetic.
- That is not the shape of a floor being found. It is the shape of a pipeline being run down, and this is the first published set that makes the distinction visible.
Key figures
| net polished exports, on $804.5m | $625.7m |
|---|---|
| net polished imports, on $609m | $531.3m |
| net rough exports, on $292.6m | $191.2m |
| net rough imports, on $324.6m | $208.3m |
Source: Israel, H1 2026
One number becomes four
Figures published on 16 August by the Israeli financial broadcaster Emess, in a report by Gadi Fox, put net polished exports for the first half of 2026 at $625.7 million against $804.5 million a year earlier, a fall of 22.3%. Net polished imports came to $531.3 million against $609 million, down 12.7%.
Net rough exports were $191.2 million against $292.6 million, down 34.6%, and net rough imports $208.3 million against $324.6 million, down 35.8%. Rapaport also carried the polished export figure in its August trade newsletter, at the same $625.7 million.
Neither outlet names a source for it, so the match reads as corroboration of one release rather than a second count.
Grouped by category rather than by direction, the split is the story. The two polished legs together came to $1.157 billion against $1.4135 billion, a fall of 18.1%. The two rough legs came to $399.5 million against $617.2 million, a fall of 35.3%.
On this desk's arithmetic the rough trade contracted 1.94 times as fast as the polished trade, and rough is the leg that moves first.
What a cutting centre buys as rough it ships as polished six to twelve months later, so a 35% fall in rough throughput across the first half is a statement about the second half and about 2027, not about the period in which it was measured.
The leg that moves first fell hardest · H1 2026 vs H1 2025, % change
Source: Israel, H1 2026
Against the aggregate already printed
The aggregate this paper has already printed does not contradict it, and the bases differ. On 27 July this desk reported Israeli diamond exports of $2.4 billion for the first half, the lowest half on record, against roughly $7 billion at the 2015 peak, on figures from the Diamond Controller's Office.
Those are gross export figures across all categories. The four legs above are net, and they sum to $1.5565 billion against $2.0307 billion, a fall of 23.35%. The two series measure different things and should not be added together or compared like for like.
They point the same way, and the categorical set is the first published data that says which part of the trade is falling fastest.
| Figure | |
|---|---|
| Rough Imports | −35.8% |
| Rough Exports | −34.6% |
| Polished Exports | −22.3% |
| Polished Imports | −12.7% |
Notes on this table
All four are net figures for the first half of 2026 against the first half of 2025, published 16 August by Emess. Bars are plotted as the size of each decline, so a longer bar is a worse result. Grouped by category the two rough legs fell 35.3% and the two polished legs 18.1%, a ratio of 1.94 on this desk's arithmetic. These are net figures and are not the same series as the $2.4bn gross half-year export total this paper printed on 27 July. Carat Capital graphics desk.
What the release does not carry
Two things the release does not carry are worth naming. It gives no monthly path, so nothing in it shows whether the second quarter was worse than the first or whether the decline flattened, and the United States tariff change that struck Israeli goods in late July falls outside the period entirely.
The 10% Section 122 tariff sunset on or about 24 July and was replaced the same day by a new Section 301 forced-labour measure, under which Israel sits in the 12.5% tier alongside China, Hong Kong, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
It also gives values without unit volumes, and in a half when natural polished prices have been falling, a decline in value overstates the decline in stones by a margin the data does not let anyone size.
Emess attributes the fall to weaker natural demand at home and abroad, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, competition from laboratory-grown stones, flight cancellations and changes in United States tariff policy, and prices none of them.
The story so far
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Corrections
Correction, 24 August 2026: this article as published said that a 10% United States tariff on diamond imports took effect in late July. The 10% rate was the Section 122 tariff, which was sunsetting on or about 24 July; what took effect that day was a new Section 301 forced-labour tariff, under which Israel's rate is 12.5%. The bad figure came from this desk attaching the outgoing rate to the incoming measure in a framing sentence that carried no citation of its own. What was correct as published, and remains correct, is that the tariff change falls outside the half-year these figures cover. The same note removes the word “independently” from the description of Rapaport's matching $625.7 million figure: neither outlet names a source, and one shared government release is a likelier explanation than two separate counts. No trade figure in the article changes.
Method
All four are net figures for the first half of 2026 against the first half of 2025, published 16 August by Emess. Bars are plotted as the size of each decline, so a longer bar is a worse result. Grouped by category the two rough legs fell 35.3% and the two polished legs 18.1%, a ratio of 1.94 on this desk's arithmetic. These are net figures and are not the same series as the $2.4bn gross half-year export total this paper printed on 27 July.