CaratIsrael's rough trade fell 35%, its polished 18%: the leading leg fell hardest
First-half figures give the categorical split this paper has carried only in aggregate: polished exports $625.7m, down 22.3%; rough exports $191.2m, down 34.6%. The rough legs together fell 35.3% against 18.1%.
§1One number becomes four.
Israel's diamond trade has been reported all year as one number, and it has now been broken into four. Figures published on 16 August by the Israeli financial broadcaster Emess, in a report by Gadi Fox, put net polished exports for the first half of 2026 at $625.7 million against $804.5 million a year earlier, a fall of 22.3%. Net polished imports came to $531.3 million against $609 million, down 12.7%. Net rough exports were $191.2 million against $292.6 million, down 34.6%, and net rough imports $208.3 million against $324.6 million, down 35.8%. Rapaport carried the polished export figure independently in its August trade newsletter, at the same $625.7 million.
Grouped by category rather than by direction, the split is the story. The two polished legs together came to $1.157 billion against $1.4135 billion, a fall of 18.1%. The two rough legs came to $399.5 million against $617.2 million, a fall of 35.3%. On this desk's arithmetic the rough trade contracted 1.94 times as fast as the polished trade, and rough is the leg that moves first. What a cutting centre buys as rough it ships as polished six to twelve months later, so a 35% fall in rough throughput across the first half is a statement about the second half and about 2027, not about the period in which it was measured.
§2Against the aggregate already printed.
The aggregate this paper has already printed does not contradict it, and the bases differ. On 27 July this desk reported Israeli diamond exports of $2.4 billion for the first half, the lowest half on record, against roughly $7 billion at the 2015 peak, on figures from the Diamond Controller's Office. Those are gross export figures across all categories. The four legs above are net, and they sum to $1.5565 billion against $2.0307 billion, a fall of 23.35%. The two series measure different things and should not be added together or compared like for like. They point the same way, and the categorical set is the first published data that says which part of the trade is falling fastest.
Rough intake is an order book, and Israel's fell faster than its output.
§3What the release does not carry.
Two things the release does not carry are worth naming. It gives no monthly path, so nothing in it shows whether the second quarter was worse than the first or whether the decline flattened, and the 10% United States tariff on diamond imports that took effect in late July falls outside the period entirely. It also gives values without unit volumes, and in a half when natural polished prices have been falling, a decline in value overstates the decline in stones by a margin the data does not let anyone size. Emess attributes the fall to weaker natural demand at home and abroad, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, competition from laboratory-grown stones, flight cancellations and changes in United States tariff policy, and prices none of them.
The figure that should worry Ramat Gan is $208.3 million of rough imports, not $625.7 million of polished exports. A cutting centre's rough intake is its order book, and Israel's fell 35.8% while its polished output fell 22.3%. The gap between those two rates is the trade saying what it expects to sell next year. Rough imports were 40.3% of polished exports a year ago and are 33.3% now, on this desk's arithmetic. That is not the shape of a floor being found. It is the shape of a pipeline being run down, and this is the first published set that makes the distinction visible.
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