CaratAll four Swiss groups turn positive for the first time since 2022
Morgan Stanley's second-quarter secondary-market index rose 1.5%, with Swatch Group up 5.4% and Richemont 4.2% year on year. April was the market's best single month since March 2022 at plus 2.5%.
§1Three years, undone.
The secondhand watch market has finished the job it started in 2022. Morgan Stanley's second-quarter index of Swiss watch resale prices rose 1.5%, and for the first time since early 2022 all four of the groups it tracks are positive year on year. Swatch Group is up 5.4% over twelve months and Richemont 4.2%. Sequentially, Richemont gained 1.3% in the quarter and Swatch 1.0%. After three years in which the resale tape only told bad news, the bad news has stopped.
April did most of the lifting. The WatchCharts overall market index gained 2.5% that month, its best single month since March 2022, carried by the run-up to Watches and Wonders. Dealers responded the way dealers do, pushing secondary supply to record levels, and demand could not keep pace through May and June. That is why a quarter that contains the market's best month in four years still only prints 1.5% overall.
§2April did the lifting.
Read against the primary market, the picture is coherent rather than contradictory. Swiss exports rose 11.2% in June to nearly 2.4 billion francs, and first-half volumes were up 2.3% with 162,000 more units shipped. Exports to the United States fell 14.8% in the half, against a comparison base inflated by the 150% April 2025 surge ahead of tariffs. The Middle East, roughly a tenth of Swiss exports, has been unsettled since February.
After three years in which the resale tape only told bad news, the bad news has stopped.
§3Why a floor matters.
What makes a resale floor matter to a retailer is collateral. A rising secondary index means a trade-in has a defensible number on it, a pre-owned case is financeable, and a client considering a five-figure watch can be shown a residual value rather than asked to ignore one. Falling resale prices did the opposite for three years, and the pawn and consignment desks priced accordingly.
1.5% in a quarter is not a boom and nobody should sell it as one, particularly with dealer inventory at record levels and demand that faded in May and June. The signal is narrower and more useful than a rally.
The direction of the secondary market has flipped from headwind to mild tailwind, and that changes the arithmetic on every trade-in, every financing conversation and every pre-owned case in the window.
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