$275.1 billion holiday forecast carries $21.3 billion in BNPL
Adobe Analytics projects a 7% rise in US online spending between 1 November and 31 December. Cyber Monday alone is forecast at $15.1 billion, the first single day above that line.
By The Retail & Technology Desk
What changed
BNPL grows at the market rate. Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion of US online holiday spending, up 7%, and $21.3 billion of Buy Now Pay Later, up 7%. Deferred payment holds its share rather than gaining.
What it means
- If you run jewellery e-commerce: The plannable figure is $47.5 billion in four days at 17% of the season. That is a promotional calendar, not a steady November.
- If you use a BNPL partner: The forecast has deferred payment growing at exactly the market rate. Any share gain you see in Q4 is yours, not the category's.
- If you set ad budgets: Black Friday is forecast to outgrow Cyber Monday, 9% against 6%, on earlier discounting. The weight has moved earlier.
- What this is not: Jewellery data. Adobe publishes no jewellery line in this forecast, and a forecast is a projection rather than a reading of trade.
Key figures
| US online holiday spend, forecast+7% year on year | $275.1bn |
|---|---|
| Buy Now Pay Later+7%, the same rate | $21.3bn |
| Cyber Monday+6%, first day above $15bn | $15.1bn |
| Cyber Week17% of the season | $47.5bn |
Source: Adobe Analytics annual holiday shopping forecast, as reported by Rapaport on 6 October 2026; period 1 November to 31 December 2026
Two sevens, one share
Both up seven. Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion of holiday online spending and $21.3 billion of BNPL, each up 7%. Deferred payment is projected to hold its position, not gain it.
Seven point seven. Dividing 21.3 by 275.1 gives 7.7% of the holiday total. Adobe does not publish that share; it is Carat Capital's own arithmetic.
| Period | Forecast | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov - 31 Dec total | $275.1bn | +7% |
| October (separate) | $95.8bn | +8% |
| Cyber Week, Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday | $47.5bn | +7% |
| Cyber Monday | $15.1bn | +6% |
| Black Friday | $12.9bn | +9% |
| Prime Day, 6-7 October | $9.9bn | +9% |
| Thanksgiving | $6.9bn | +8.5% |
| Buy Now Pay Later, Nov-Dec | $21.3bn | +7% |
Every figure is Adobe's own projection as reported, not an outcome. The BNPL share of the holiday total, 21.3/275.1 = 7.7%, is Carat Capital's division and is labelled as such; Adobe does not publish that share. October's $95.8 billion sits outside the 1 November to 31 December holiday window and is not part of the $275.1 billion.
Cyber Monday breaks fifteen
First single day. Cyber Monday is forecast at $15.1 billion, up 6%, the first time US e-commerce will exceed $15 billion in one day on Adobe's measure.
Friday grows faster. Black Friday is projected up 9% to $12.9 billion on earlier discounting, outgrowing Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving is put at $6.9 billion, up 8.5%.
Four days, a sixth
Forty-seven and a half. Cyber Week is forecast to rise 7% to $47.5 billion, which Adobe puts at 17% of the total holiday outlay. The concentration is the planning problem.
No jewellery line. Adobe's named categories are electronics, apparel, furniture, grocery, toys and cosmetics. Jewellery is not broken out in this forecast at all.
What to watch
- Early December 2026Adobe's Cyber Week actuals against the $47.5 billion forecast, the first test of the whole projection.
- Early December 2026Whether Cyber Monday clears $15.1 billion, which is the headline the forecast is built to produce.
- January 2027Adobe's full-season figure against $275.1 billion, and whether BNPL came in above or below its 7.7% implied share.
The story so far
Go deeper
What would change this call
Cyber Week actuals materially under $47.5 billion, or a BNPL share above 8%, either of which would undo the reading that deferred payment is holding rather than gaining. This is a forecast and every figure in it is an estimate of a future period.
What Adobe Analytics measures
Adobe Analytics bases its e-commerce figures on aggregated, anonymised data from transactions it processes for retail websites in the United States, covering a large share of online retail but not the whole of it and not physical stores. Its holiday window is 1 November to 31 December, so the October figure quoted here sits outside the headline total rather than inside it. The forecast is a projection made before the period, not a measurement of it, and Adobe publishes actuals against the same definitions afterwards, which is what makes the two comparable. Category growth rates are revenue, not units, so a category can grow while selling fewer items at higher prices.
Method
Rapaport's report was fetched to raw bytes, HTTP 200, 221,269 bytes, saved to newsroom/sources/2026-10-08/adobe.html, and the figures were read out of the article's own body paragraphs after isolating them from the page's related-article rail. Exact-digit greps on that saved file: '$275.1 billion' five hits, '$21.3 billion' three, '$15.1 billion' three, '$47.5 billion' one, '$12.9 billion' one, '$95.8 billion' one. The 7.7% BNPL share is this paper's own division of two of Adobe's figures and is labelled as such everywhere it appears, because Adobe does not publish it. Archive check, searched in website/content/articles.json: 'Adobe' returns zero hits. The Bureau's own grep for '275.1' returned one hit which it opened and dismissed as an SVG chart coordinate in website/indices.html, and that dismissal was confirmed here rather than taken on trust. The search file is the archive of record and the entity hit count is nil.