2.4% of units, 36.2% of value: the gold watch inside a 9.6% July

§1A month turns the year.

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry published July's export figures today. Total exports were CHF 2,628.3 million, up 9.6% on July 2025, and the cumulative figure for the first seven months moved into positive territory at plus 0.9%. That last number is the one that changes something. On 21 July this paper reported the same cumulative series at minus 0.7% for the half, on CHF 12.8 billion. One month has swung it 1.6 points and turned a shrinking year into a growing one.

Wristwatches accounted for CHF 2,522.7 million of the total, up 9.8%, on 1,523,400 units, up 6.8%. Ninety-seven thousand more watches left Switzerland in July than a year earlier. Underneath that headline the material split is where a jeweller's interest sits, and it does not read the way the total does. Precious metal was 2.4% of the units and 36.2% of the value: 37,100 watches carrying CHF 912.8 million.

§2The material split, and the metal underneath it.

Precious metal was also the slowest-growing material in the release by value, at plus 3.7%, against steel at plus 9.0%, other metals at plus 9.8%, other materials at plus 11.1% and gold-steel at plus 23.8%. Its unit growth was plus 0.9%, which is as close to flat as this series gets. By this desk's arithmetic on the Federation's own table, the average export price of a precious-metal watch was about CHF 24,600 in July against about CHF 23,900 a year earlier, a rise of 2.8%. Gold-steel tells the opposite story: 4.4% fewer watches at about CHF 4,970 each, an average price up 29.5%. That is a mix and pricing move, not a demand one.

Set that against metal. Gold on this paper's tape is $4,482.20 an ounce this morning, and it moved 2.80% against yesterday's mark of record in a single session. The precious-metal watch category took a full year to raise its average export price by the same 2.8%. These are two different measurements and they are not directly comparable: an export price carries movement, case, hands, distribution and margin, and bullion is a minority of it. What the comparison does establish is that the category with the most metal in it is the category passing the least of the metal's move along.

§3Top and bottom, with the middle giving ground.

The market table is where the release's own caution matters. The United States took CHF 701.3 million, up 26.5%, a 26.7% share and a third consecutive month of double-digit growth. France is printed at plus 104.6%, and the Federation says in the release itself that the figure does not reflect the actual trend in that market. Japan fell 3.7%, China 18.5% and the United Arab Emirates 3.7%. The six largest markets together took CHF 1,563.8 million, up 21.7%, or 59.5% of the whole. Measured on value by price band, watches above CHF 3,000 grew 12.0% and the CHF 500 to 3,000 band fell 3.9%, so the strength sits at the top and at the bottom and the middle is giving ground.