CaratMastercard forecasts 6% US holiday growth, online up 11%
In-store sales are put at 3.6% for 1 November to 24 December, and Mastercard says higher prices account for about half the rise. It names energy costs and AI-driven demand.
Half the growth is price. Mastercard forecasts US holiday sales up 6% from 1 November to 24 December, its strongest in four years. It says higher prices account for about half the increase.
If you plan holiday stock: About half of a 6% rise is price, so the volume signal is nearer 3%. Order against units, not dollars.
If you set online spend: Mastercard puts online growth at 11% against 3.6% in store, and Cyber Monday falls in November this year.
What this is not: A jewellery forecast. This is all US retail on Mastercard's transaction data, with no category split published for jewellery.
| Measure | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total US retail | +6% | 1 Nov – 24 Dec | Mastercard |
| Online | +11% | 1 Nov – 24 Dec | Mastercard |
| In store | +3.6% | 1 Nov – 24 Dec | Mastercard |
| Share of the rise from higher prices | about half | 1 Nov – 24 Dec | Mastercard |
| Total US holiday sales | +4.5% | Holiday season | Bain |
IOnline grows three times in-store
The gap is wide. Mastercard puts online growth at 11% and in-store at 3.6%. Online is forecast to grow about three times as fast.
November takes more. Cyber Monday falls in November this year, which Mastercard says shifts online sales into the month.
IIPrice does about half the work
Dollars are not units. Mastercard attributes about half the increase to higher prices, naming energy costs and AI-driven demand.
The calendar shortens. Thanksgiving falls late, as in 2025, shortening the run to Christmas and pulling promotions earlier.
IIIA second forecast reads lower
Two houses disagree. Bain put US holiday sales up 4.5%, reported here on 7 September. Mastercard's 6% is 1.5 points higher.
Methods differ. Mastercard reads its own transaction data. Bain's figure arrived alongside a survey-based view of jewellery intent.
01What would change this call+
A price path. The forecast rests on higher prices carrying about half the increase; if energy costs fall through the quarter, the dollar figure and the volume figure converge and a 6% print becomes a stronger real result than it reads here. A weaker labour market would work the other way and pull both down. The 1.5-point gap with Bain will also be settled by the outturn rather than by argument.
02A transaction panel and a survey measure different things+
Mastercard's holiday forecast is built from payment data the company sees plus estimates for cash and cheque, so it observes spending after it happens and models the rest. A consultancy forecast of the same season is typically built from stated intent, macro inputs and channel checks, so it observes what people say they will do. The first is closer to the till and the second is closer to sentiment, and they can be a point or two apart on the same season without either being wrong. Neither, on its own, says anything about jewellery: the aggregate US retail figure is dominated by categories a jeweller does not compete in, and a category split has to be published separately before it can be used. This is also why a dollar forecast and a unit forecast are not interchangeable. When a source says half of a rise is price, the part of the number that describes real demand is the other half, and a buyer ordering stock is buying units.
03Method · the desk’s arithmetic+
Rapaport's report was fetched directly rather than through a summariser: https://rapaport.com/news/mastercard-us-holiday-shopping-growth-to-reach-four-year-high/, 200, and the body text was read out of the served page. Its own summary lines carry the three channel figures verbatim - "Mastercard forecasts a 6% year-over-year increase in US holiday sales from November 1 to December 24", "In-store sales are expected to rise 3.6%, while online sales could grow 11%", and "Higher prices, influenced by energy costs, will account for about half of the spending increase this season" - and the body adds the four-year framing, the late Thanksgiving and the November Cyber Monday. The byline is Suzanne Watkin and the report is dated 24 September 2026; it attributes the forecast to Mastercard on the Wednesday, which is 23 September, and both dates are carried here rather than merged. Mastercard's own release was not reached in this run, so every figure is attributed to Rapaport's report of it, which is the disclosed limit on this article. The archive was checked by opening every hit rather than counting them. A search for "Mastercard" across the built site returns nothing, so no prior article on this company or this forecast exists here. The nearest prior item is the 7 September piece on Bain's holiday forecast, which was opened and read: it is a different forecaster, a different figure and a different method, which under the Period Rule makes this item advanced rather than a repeat on the same general theme. Its 4.5% and its above-$1-trillion total are quoted here from this paper's own published article on it and are not re-derived. The one derived figure in this piece, the roughly 3% volume signal, is half of the source's own stated 6% and is printed with the source's own hedge attached; no attempt is made to compute a precise real-growth rate from a range the source describes only as "about half". The channel ratio 11/3.6 = 3.06 is this desk's own division and is printed in the table note so it can be checked. No jewellery, watch or luxury figure is stated or inferred, because the report carries none.
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