CaratOura's $44 top IPO price values a ring at $14.1bn
The prospectus filed with the SEC on 21 September puts 50 million shares on sale, 73% of them from existing holders. Eli Lilly and Dragoneer have signalled $400m of interest.
A ring clears Prada. Oura Inc. set an IPO range of $40 to $44 a share in its 21 September prospectus. On that document's own post-offering share count, the top of the range values the company at $14.12bn.
If you sell fine jewellery: A finger-worn device is about to be worth more than Prada. The comparison is market value, not revenue.
If you watch category spend: Oura took $240.5m of membership revenue in nine months, 19.8% of its total. That is recurring money a jeweller cannot bill.
What this is not: A priced deal. The range is indicative and the offering prices 29 September. The $15.6bn figure widely reported is a fully diluted number on a share base this prospectus does not set out.
| Measure | At $40 | At $44 | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market value, 320,945,459 shares | $12.84bn | $14.12bn | Desk arithmetic |
| Gross offering, 50,000,000 shares | $2.00bn | $2.20bn | Prospectus cover |
| To Oura, 13,500,000 shares | $540m | $594m | Prospectus cover |
| To selling stockholders, 36,500,000 | $1.46bn | $1.61bn | Prospectus cover |
| Prada SpA market capitalisation | $12.46bn–$12.62bn | $12.46bn–$12.62bn | HK$97.80bn at the peg band |
IExisting holders sell three-quarters
Most shares are secondary. Of the shares offered, Oura is selling 13,500,000 and existing stockholders 36,500,000, or 73.0% of the total. Oura receives none of the stockholders' proceeds.
Two investors pre-committed. Eli Lilly indicated interest in up to $100.0m of stock and Dragoneer funds up to $300.0m. Together that is 18.2% of the offering at the top of the range.
IIRevenue up 74%, and profitable
Revenue nearly doubled. Revenue reached $1,214.5m in the nine months to 30 June, against $697.6m a year earlier. That is 74.1% growth.
Profit is real. Net income was $60.8m in the same nine months, against $1.6m a year earlier. Gross margin widened to 55%.
Membership grew fastest. Membership revenue more than doubled to $240.5m, from $108.8m. That is 19.8% of total revenue.
IIIA warranty charge on batteries
One cost jumped. Cost of revenue carried an $84.4m increase in warranty expense. The prospectus attributes it to battery performance issues on certain Oura Ring 4 cohorts.
Scale is still small. IDC put global wearable shipments at about 212 million units in the year to 30 June. Oura sold 3.6 million rings over the same year.
IVThe prospectus says jewelry once
One word, once. The prospectus uses the word jewelry a single time, in the phrase "jewelry-like design". The ring weighs as little as two grams.
New to wearables. Oura reports that 33% of new members say it is their first wearable device.
01What would change this call+
A repriced deal. An offering can price outside its indicative range in either direction, and the range in this prospectus is explicitly subject to completion. A price below about $38.04 would put the post-offering market value under HK$97.80bn converted at 7.75, which is the point where the comparison with Prada stops holding at every rate in the peg band. A revised amendment could also change the share count this arithmetic rests on.
02Market value and fully diluted value are two numbers+
A market capitalisation multiplies the shares that will actually be outstanding by the price. A fully diluted valuation adds instruments that could become shares later, such as unexercised options and unvested awards, and so it is always the larger of the two on the same price. Neither is wrong and they are not interchangeable. The gap between the $14.1bn and $15.6bn figures reported for this offering is that choice of denominator, not a disagreement about what a share costs. A prospectus cover states the outstanding count because that is the one an investor can check; the diluted base sits in the notes and varies with the assumptions applied to it. Comparing a fully diluted figure for one company with a market capitalisation for another manufactures a gap that is arithmetic rather than news, which is why both numbers here are built the same way on both sides.
03Method · the desk’s arithmetic+
The prospectus was fetched directly from SEC EDGAR rather than through a summariser: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133022/000119312526396051/d119865ds1a.htm, 200, 3,011,086 bytes, which reduced to 1,068,527 characters of text after markup was stripped. Every figure attributed to it here was read out of that text. The cover carries "50,000,000 Shares", "We are offering 13,500,000 shares of our common stock, and the selling stockholders identified in this prospectus are offering 36,500,000 shares", the range "between $40.00 and $44.00", the Nasdaq symbol "OURA", and the two cornerstone indications at "up to $100.0 million" for Eli Lilly and Company and "up to $300.0 million" for funds affiliated with Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC. The share count 320,945,459 is the prospectus's own post-offering figure, stated as of 30 June 2026 after the Preferred Stock Conversion, the SAFE Conversion and the RSU Net Settlement. The revenue lines are the prospectus's own consolidated statements of operations in thousands: total revenue 1,214,506 and 697,569 for the nine months to 30 June 2026 and 2025, hardware 973,980 and 588,726, membership 240,526 and 108,843. The percentages are this desk's divisions of those figures, shown so they can be checked: 1,214,506/697,569 = 174.11%, so 74.1% growth, which the prospectus itself rounds to 74%; 240,526/1,214,506 = 19.80%; 240,526/108,843 = 220.98%. Net income of $60.8m and $1.6m and gross margins of 55% and 51% are the prospectus's own summary figures; the margin recomputes as (1,214,506-552,339)/1,214,506 = 54.5%, consistent with the 55% the document states. The 212 million wearable-unit figure is the prospectus's own citation of International Data Corporation and is not independently verified here. The prospectus states approximately 2% penetration on 3.6 million Rings Sold; 3.6/212 = 1.70%, so the source's own rounding is generous and no share figure is printed in this article. The single use of "jewelry" was established by counting occurrences of the string in the stripped text of the whole document: one, in "Our jewelry-like design enables seamless wear across settings". The filing history, including the 21 September S-1/A and the 3 September S-1, was read from EDGAR's own submissions feed for CIK 0002133022, which is also where the 30 September fiscal year end and the Delaware incorporation come from. Prada's market capitalisation was fetched separately at https://stockanalysis.com/quote/hkg/1913/, 200, 135,455 bytes, reading HK$38.68 and a market capitalisation of HK$97.80bn stamped 25 September 2026 4:08 PM HKT; the page labels the price delayed. Yahoo Finance was tried first as a second door and returned 429, so the Hong Kong figure rests on one page and is converted across the whole peg band rather than at a single rate, which is the disclosed limit on it. No 29 September pricing date appears on the prospectus cover; that date is JCK's report of Reuters and is attributed to them wherever it appears. This desk did not verify the Lululemon or Dick's Sporting Goods comparisons JCK relays, and does not print them.
04Sources4 documents
- Oura Inc. Form S-1/A (preliminary prospectus, dated 21 September 2026) ↗
- Oura Inc. filing history, SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002133022) ↗
- Prada SpA (1913.HK) quote, market capitalisation HK$97.80bn at the 25 September Hong Kong close ↗
- Oura Targets Up to $15.6 Billion Valuation in IPO, Surpassing Prada and Lululemon, JCK ↗
Mastercard forecasts 6% US holiday growth, online up 11%
The other retail number filed this morning: Mastercard's 6% holiday forecast, and how much of it is price.
The trade, filed before the New York open.
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