Bain puts US holiday sales above $1 trillion, up 4.5%
McKinsey finds 43% of shoppers planning to spend less on jewelry and 18% planning to spend more. Only 10% name jewelry or accessories as a top category.
By The Retail Desk
What changed
Retail grows, jewelry does not. Bain forecasts a 4.5% rise in United States holiday sales for November and December, taking the season above $1 trillion. McKinsey's survey of the same season finds 43% of shoppers planning to spend less on jewelry.
What it means
- If you buy for the holidays: plan volume on traffic, not on jewelry intent. Nine in ten shoppers name another category first.
- If you price gift stock: PwC's $708 average gift budget is down 2%. Price the entry case to it.
- What this is not: a forecast of jewelry sales. These are stated intentions, not orders.
Key figures
| Holiday salesNovember and December, Bain | +4.5% |
|---|---|
| Season totalfirst time above, Bain | $1tn |
| Spending lesson jewelry, McKinsey survey | 43% |
| Top categoryname jewelry or accessories | 10% |
Source: Bain & Company, 3 September 2026, and McKinsey and PwC via Rapaport, 6 September 2026 · November-December 2026
Inflation carries half the rise
More dollars, not more goods. Bain expects nominal sales to rise 4.5%, against the 3.5% recorded in the 2025 season. More than half of that increase comes from higher inflation, not from extra goods sold.
Online takes the growth. Nonstore retail sales are forecast to grow 9% and to generate 60% of overall sales growth, up from 50% a season earlier.
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday sales growth, November-December | +4.5% | Bain |
| Growth recorded in the 2025 season | +3.5% | Bain |
| Season total | above $1tn | Bain |
| Nonstore retail growth | +9% | Bain |
| Nonstore share of overall sales growth | 60% | Bain |
| Shoppers planning to spend less on jewelry | 43% | McKinsey |
| Planning to spend the same | 39% | McKinsey |
| Planning to spend more | 18% | McKinsey |
| Naming jewelry or accessories a top category | 10% | McKinsey |
| Average gift spend per consumer | $708 | PwC |
| Change in that gift spend | −2% | PwC |
Source. Bain's release of 3 September 2026 for the first five rows; Rapaport's report of 6 September 2026 for the McKinsey and PwC rows, which it attributes to those firms.
Inflation. accounts for more than half of Bain's nominal growth.
Jewelry sits near the bottom
Intent runs negative. McKinsey's survey finds 43% of consumers planning to spend less on jewelry, 39% expecting to spend the same and 18% intending to spend more.
Ten percent name it. Asked where they intended to spend the most, only 10% of consumers selected jewelry and accessories, among the lowest-ranked categories in the survey.
Gen Z picks it most. Gen Z selects jewelry at 18%, against 13% of Millennials, 8% of Gen X and 5% of Baby Boomers. That is a gap of 13 points, youngest to oldest.
Two forecasts point apart
PwC reads it lower. PwC's outlook has holiday spending slipping 2% year on year, with gift buying down 2% to an average of $708 a consumer. Bain and PwC are measuring different baskets.
Surveys precede sales. All three readings were taken before the season. Edge Retail Academy's count of August jewelry sales, up 5% by value and down 8% by units, measures the same market after the fact.
What to watch
- Early OctEdge Retail Academy's September count, the first hard jewelry figure of the run-up.
- 27 NovBlack Friday, the first trading day that tests McKinsey's stated intent.
- Mid-JanSignet's holiday trading update, when the season is counted rather than surveyed.
The story so far
- Five up, eight down in AugustJewelry sales rose 5% by value, units fell 8%.
- Who buys diamonds nowBain-Altagamma put the spring luxury market flat.
Go deeper
What would change this call
A November in which jewelry units rise while the survey said they would fall. Two consecutive months of rising units in Edge's count would retire the caution above and put jewelry back on the season's growth list.
How the three forecasts differ
Bain forecasts nominal United States retail sales for November and December, so inflation lifts the total without a single extra unit being sold. McKinsey surveys stated spending intentions by category before the season begins. PwC surveys planned gift budgets per consumer. None of the three counts a transaction, and all three are published before the season they describe.
Method
The 4.5% growth, the $1 trillion total, the 3.5% figure for the 2025 season, the inflation share and the 9% nonstore growth with its 60% share are Bain's own, published 3 September 2026 and read directly. The 43%, 39% and 18% jewelry intentions, the 10% top-category share and the generational shares are McKinsey's, and the 2% decline and $708 average gift spend are PwC's; all five are taken from Rapaport's report of 6 September 2026, which attributes them to those firms. Carat Capital did not obtain the McKinsey or PwC releases directly and neither firm's sample size or field dates were published with the report. The 13-point generational gap and the nine-in-ten restatement of the 10% figure are Carat Capital's arithmetic. Bain's own release does not mention jewelry.