Newmont puts Red Chris block-cave capital at $4.2–4.8 billion
The estimate is net of a CAD$500 million Canadian grant whose terms are not final, and leaves out the cost of moving from open pit to block cave. Production is targeted for 2033.
By Carat Capital
What changed
A price on the cave. Newmont puts development capital for the Red Chris block cave in British Columbia at $4.2–4.8 billion. It calls this an updated estimate and does not give the earlier one.
What it means
- If you finance copper-gold projects: The range already counts a federal grant whose terms are still being negotiated.
- If you hold Newmont: Newmont expects to fund it from internal cash flows, with a full-funds decision expected in early 2027.
- What this is not: An approved project. Newmont's board and the joint venture board must both still approve it.
Key figures
| Development capital100% basis, net of the grant | $4.2–4.8bn |
|---|---|
| Canadian grantterms expected by end-2026 | CAD$500m |
| Commercial productionconstruction from 2027 | 2033 |
| Gold a year, 2035–2040average, plus copper | 275–325koz |
Source: Newmont third-quarter 2026 results release, SEC Exhibit 99.1, dated 22 October 2026. Development capital on a 100% ownership basis, in real terms, including contingency.
The grant sits inside it
Net of Ottawa. The range is net of a CAD$500 million contribution the Government of Canada announced in July. The joint venture expects to agree the terms in the coming months.
One cost left out. The range excludes the cost of moving from open-pit mining to block caving. Newmont gives no figure for that transition.
| Measure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Development capital | $4.2bn to $4.8bn | real terms, with contingency, net of grant |
| In Canadian dollars | CAD$5.6bn to $6.4bn | at US$0.75 = CAD$1.00 |
| Government of Canada contribution | CAD$500m | announced July 2026; terms expected before end-2026 |
| First phase output | 3.0m oz gold, over 850kt copper | initial 13-year cave life |
| Average output, 2035 to 2040 | 275koz to 325koz gold; 65kt to 85kt copper | per year |
| Ownership | Newmont 70%, Imperial Metals 30% | Red Chris Joint Venture |
Excludes the cost of moving from open-pit mining to block caving, for which Newmont gives no figure. Newmont evaluated the project across scenarios including gold at $3,600 an ounce and copper at $5.00 a pound.
Production targeted for 2033
Construction from 2027. Subject to both boards, construction is expected to start in 2027. Commercial production is targeted for 2033.
Steady output later. Newmont expects an average of 275,000 to 325,000 ounces of gold a year from 2035 to 2040, with copper alongside.
One scenario at $3,600 gold
A range of prices. Newmont evaluated the return across a range of gold prices that includes $3,600 an ounce. The release names no other. The tape's bid of $3,994.90, Friday's close, is 11.0% above that one scenario.
Cheap to run, it says. Newmont expects the mine to be one of its lowest-cost operations over its life. It also expects a double-digit internal rate of return.
What to watch
- Before end-2026Final terms of the Government of Canada's CAD$500 million contribution.
- Early 2027Newmont's full-funds investment decision, which also needs the joint venture board.
- 2027Construction start, if both boards approve.
The story so far
Go deeper
Corrections
Corrected, 26 October 2026: a section was headed 'Planned at $3,600 gold' and called the tape's price 'below the tape' of Newmont's plan. Newmont's release, footnote 5, says the return was 'evaluated across a range of economic scenarios, including gold at $3,600/oz'; it does not say the capital was planned at that price. The section now calls $3,600 one scenario. Two lines also hardened Newmont's expectations: it 'expects to fund' the project from internal cash flows, and expects the grant's terms to be finalised by end-2026; both now say so. On 27 October the same change was made to a table row that still read 'terms due before end-2026'; it now reads 'terms expected before end-2026', as footnote 4 of the release gives it. A subhead said six years to production; it now names the 2033 target. What was right as published: every figure, including 11.0%. Found by Carat Capital's Standards desk on 25 October 2026.
What would change this call
Grant terms that shrink the contribution, or a feasibility study that prices the open-pit transition high. Either would lift the real bill above $4.8 billion.
What the range covers
The figure is development capital for the first block-cave phase. It is stated on a 100% ownership basis, in real terms, with contingency, after the grant. Newmont owns 70% of the joint venture and operates it; Imperial Metals owns 30%.
Method
Newmont Exhibit 99.1 to its third-quarter 2026 filing, dateline 'DENVER, October 22, 2026', fetched by the Editor from sec.gov on 25 October 2026 with an identifying header, 200, 2,474,418 bytes; tags stripped and searched. Read in the text: 'Total development capital for the project is currently estimated between $4.2 and $4.8 billion in real terms' (1 hit); 'The updated capital estimate reflects the latest development plan' (1); 'net of the anticipated CAD$500 million contribution from the Government of Canada' ('CAD$500 million' 3); footnote 3, '100% ownership basis' (1), 'Estimates exclude costs to transition from open pit to block cave operations', 'CAD$5.6 and $6.4 billion' at 'US$0.75 = CAD$1.00'; footnote 4, terms 'expected to be finalized before the end of 2026'; 'expected to commence in 2027, with commercial production targeted for 2033' ('2033' 1); 'between 275 and 325 thousand ounces of gold per year, and between 65 and 85 thousand tonnes of copper per year between 2035 and 2040'; '3.0 million ounces of gold and more than 850 thousand tonnes of copper over its initial thirteen-year cave life'; 'Newmont owns 70% of the Red Chris Joint Venture'; 'Imperial Metals (TSX:III) owns 30%'; 'fund the capital investment through internal cash flows'; 'full-funds investment decision in early 2027'; footnote 5, 'gold at $3,600/oz and copper at $5.00/lb'. The release gives no earlier capital figure, so no change is printed. Gold: the tape's Kitco bid of 3,994.90, board stamp 23 October 2026; 3,994.90 / 3,600 = 1.110, so 11.0% above. ARCHIVE, by entity: Carat Capital's archive, 'Red Chris' 0 rows, 'block cave' 0 rows, 'Newmont' 1 row (23 October, opened: third-quarter all-in sustaining cost; no Red Chris figure). Same release, different subject: NEW to the paper.