India's gold imports fall 81.27% to $1.8bn in September
Silver imports fell 49.11% to $665.08m, on Commerce Ministry data released 15 October. From April to September, gold imports were down 27.32% at $19.27bn against the same months of 2025.
By Carat Capital
What changed
Gold imports fell for a second month. India imported $1.8 billion of gold in September, 81.27% less than a year earlier, Commerce Ministry data released 15 October show. Silver imports roughly halved.
What it means
- If you import bullion: The duty has been 15% since 13 May, up from 6%.
- If you make for India's market: Less metal is entering the trade, but retail prices still follow the world price and the rupee.
- What this is not: Proof the duty did it. Neither named cause is quantified.
Key figures
| Gold imports, Septemberyear on year, to $1.8bn | −81.27% |
|---|---|
| Gold, April–Septemberdown 27.32% | $19.27bn |
| Silver imports, Septemberto $665.08m | −49.11% |
| Import dutyfrom 6%, since 13 May | 15% |
Source: India Commerce Ministry trade data for September 2026, released 15 October 2026, as reported by Kotak Neo (16 October, 12:09 IST) and The Hans India. Raw bytes: kotak.html 463,625 bytes, hans.html 896,598 bytes. The ministry's own release was not read.
A second month of steep falls
August fell first. India's August gold imports had dropped 45% to $2.3 billion. September's $1.8 billion sits about a fifth below that.
The half-year confirms it. From April to September, gold imports fell 27.32% on the same months of 2025, to $19.27 billion. Silver fell 25.17% to $2.4 billion over the same six months.
| Measure | Period | Value | Change on a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold imports | September 2026 | $1.8bn | −81.27% |
| Silver imports | September 2026 | $665.08m | −49.11% |
| Gold imports | April–September | $19.27bn | −27.32% |
| Silver imports | April–September | $2.4bn | −25.17% |
| Gold imports | August 2026 | $2.3bn | −45% |
Carat Capital's arithmetic on rounded figures. The implied September 2025 base is 1.8 / (1 − 0.8127) = $9.61bn. September against August: 1.8 / 2.3 = 0.783, so September sits about 22% below August, both figures rounded to a tenth of a billion.
Two causes named, neither measured
The duty rose. The government raised the import duty on precious metals to 15% from 6%, effective 13 May.
An appeal followed. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged buyers to defer gold purchases amid the West Asia crisis, Kotak reports. The data do not separate the appeal from the duty.
Switzerland still supplies most
Supply is concentrated. Switzerland supplied about 40% of India's gold imports, the UAE more than 16% and South Africa about 10%, Kotak reports.
What to watch
- Mid-month, date not announcedOctober's trade data. A third fall would extend the pattern into the wedding season; a rebound would test the duty reading.
- Around 20 OctoberSwiss customs' September gold exports by destination, the supply side of India's figure.
- OngoingAny change to the 15% duty. None is announced.
The story so far
Go deeper
Corrections
Clarified, 25 October 2026: a What to watch line was dated 'Mid-November'. No date has been set: the Commerce Ministry has not announced the date of its October trade release. The line now says so. Found in a Carat Capital audit of 25 October 2026.
What would change this call
A rebound in October with the duty unchanged. That would point to timing, or to the purchase appeal fading, rather than a lasting fall in India's gold demand.
How India's import figure is built
The Commerce Ministry publishes monthly merchandise trade by commodity, in US dollars, around the middle of the following month. The figures are provisional and are revised. A value series moves with the gold price as well as with tonnes, so a fall in dollars is not by itself a fall in weight.
Method
Two outlets were fetched on 19 October 2026 and saved as raw bytes. Kotak Neo, 'Gold Imports Plunge 81% In September As Silver Falls 49%', by Vishwa Ved, posted 16 Oct 2026 12:09 PM IST, 200, 463,625 bytes; the figures were read in the article's own body paragraphs, before its 'Also Read' block. Grep on the saved copy: '81.27' 9 hits, '665.08' 19, '49.11' 9, '19.27' 6, '27.32' 6, '13 May' 6, '40%' 6. The Hans India, 200, 896,598 bytes: '81.27' 2, '1.8 billion' 2, '665.08' 2, '49.11' 2, '19.27' 2, '27.32' 2, '25.17' 2. Both outlets attribute the figures to Commerce Ministry data; the ministry's own release was not opened, so this is two secondary readings of one primary. The supplier shares are Kotak's alone. ARCHIVE: Carat Capital's archive returns india-imports-fall-forty-five (22 September 2026), which covers August. This covers September. DIFFERENT PERIOD, ADVANCED.