Carat₹1,45,359 and rising: India confirms the metals turn at home
October gold on the MCX rose 0.73% to ₹1,45,359 per 10 grams and September silver 1.13% to ₹2,24,109 a kilo. Indian jewellery demand fell 19% in the first quarter and 15% in the second.
§1The global bid reaches the counter.
The global bid reached the world's largest jewellery counter on Wednesday. October 2026 gold futures on India's Multi Commodity Exchange traded at ₹1,45,359 per 10 grams, up ₹1,060 or 0.73%, and September 2026 silver at ₹2,24,109 a kilogram, up ₹2,494 or 1.13%. On Tuesday the same gold contract was holding above ₹1,43,500. A domestic contract that rises with global spot rather than lagging it is telling you the rupee is not absorbing the move for the buyer.
The context is a market coming off two bad quarters. Indian jewellery demand fell 19% in the first quarter and then to 75.1 tonnes in the second, down 15% from 88.8 tonnes, on World Gold Council figures this desk filed on 31 July. The council's own read was that demand began recovering in late June after a month-long lull, once buyers stopped waiting for a price that was not coming back. A rising futures curve at the start of August is consistent with that read, and it is the opposite of what China is doing: Chinese gold jewellery demand fell 28% in the second quarter to 50 tonnes, the weakest since 2004, as this desk reported on 3 August.
§2Two bad quarters behind it.
The arithmetic on the counter is straightforward. ₹1,45,359 per 10 grams is ₹14,536 a gram of futures-grade metal, a duty-inclusive domestic number that carries India's import levy inside it, which is why it cannot be compared directly with the $133.68 a gram of fine gold on the international spot mark. What a retailer can compare is week to week, and the direction there has been up for three sessions in both markets at once.
A domestic contract that rises with global spot rather than lagging it is telling you the rupee is not absorbing the move for the buyer.
§3A screen price is not an offtake number.
The caution is that a futures print is not an offtake number. Exchange contracts are traded by hedgers and speculators, not by families buying a chain, and India's real test arrives with the wedding and festival season from September, when the physical demand data catches up with the screen. Third-quarter tonnage will not be published for months. What the futures do confirm is that the domestic and global markets are moving together this week rather than against each other, which is not always true when the rupee is under pressure.
India is now carrying Asian demand on its own, and that is a thin plank to stand a recovery on. With China's counter at a twenty-two-year low, an Indian futures market up 0.73% on the day is the only positive tonnage signal in the region, and it is a signal about price expectations rather than about purchases made. Watch the September import numbers, not the screen. If Indian buyers step in at ₹14,536 a gram, the price has found a level the world's largest jewellery market can live with.
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