CaratIndia's quarter: 75.1 tonnes of jewellery, down 15%
Indian jewellery demand fell to 75.1 tonnes in the second quarter from 88.8 tonnes, a 15% decline, and total Indian gold demand fell 6%. The value of that demand rose about 50% as prices set records.
§1Seventy-five tonnes.
India bought 75.1 tonnes of gold jewellery in the second quarter, down from 88.8 tonnes a year earlier. That is a 15% fall in weight, against a 6% fall in total Indian gold demand, and the gap between those two numbers is the whole story: Indians did not stop buying gold, they stopped buying it in the form that carries a making charge. The value of the country's demand rose about 50%, which is what a record price does to a shrinking tonnage.
Investment took the difference. Bars, coins and funds held up while the jewellery line gave way, the same split visible in the global figures, where bar and coin demand was steady at 307 tonnes and jewellery fell 17%. In a market where gold is simultaneously the savings product and the adornment, price stress does not reduce the allocation. It moves it from the showcase to the locker.
§2From the showcase to the locker.
The counter has been managing this all year. Carat Capital reported on July 25 that Indian gold fell about 10% in June to a six-month low near 141,000 rupees per 10 grams and that listed jewellers logged 30% to 60% revenue growth as buyers returned, with old-gold trade-ins now funding up to 55% of counter sales. Exports told the same story from the other end of the pipe: June gem and jewellery shipments rose 26.5% to $2.21 billion, with gold jewellery up 54.5%.
In a market where gold is simultaneously the savings product and the adornment, price stress does not reduce the allocation.
§3Recycled metal, priced revenue.
What all of that describes is a market running on recycled metal and price-led revenue rather than fresh demand. A trade-in ratio above half means the shop is largely turning a customer's existing gold into a new piece and charging for labour, which is a good business in a high price and a fragile one in a falling price. Volume growth, when it returns, will show up in the tonnage line before it shows up in revenue.
75.1 tonnes is a soft quarter but not a broken one, and
the third quarter matters far more, because it carries the festive build into Dhanteras and Diwali. Two things will decide it: whether gold stays near $4,000 rather than $4,500, and whether jewellers have restocked light-weight ranges in time. On the evidence of the export data, the manufacturing base is already making the lighter goods. The question is whether the counter has repriced the window to match what the customer can now afford to lift.
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Jewellery demand falls to 278 tonnes worldwide.