CaratChina's gold counter falls to its lowest since 2004
Chinese gold jewellery demand fell 28% to 50 tonnes in the second quarter, the weakest since 2004, and 30% across the half to 136 tonnes. The value of that demand still rose 11%.
§1The weakest quarter of the modern era.
The weakest jewellery quarter of the modern gold era belongs to China. Mainland Chinese gold jewellery demand fell to 50.0 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, down 28% from 69.2 tonnes a year earlier and the lowest second-quarter figure since 2004, according to the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends published on July 30. Across the first half the country consumed 136 tonnes, down 30%. The council called the global quarter "one of the weakest second quarters in our data series", and China is where most of that weakness sits.
The value line moves the other way, and the gap is the whole story. Chinese jewellery demand was worth about $21 billion in the first half, up 11% year on year, against a tonnage that fell almost a third. Consumers in the world's largest gold jewellery market bought roughly 30% less metal and paid roughly 11% more for it. For a manufacturer that is not a demand collapse so much as a change in what is being sold: fewer grams, higher price per gram, and a product mix drifting toward lighter pieces and higher labour content.
§2Thirty percent less metal, eleven percent more money.
The rest of the map fell in the same direction at different speeds. India took 75.1 tonnes in the quarter, down 15% and its lowest second quarter since the pandemic, on first-half demand of 141 tonnes worth about $21 billion, up 26% by value. The Middle East fell 19% to 32.2 tonnes. The United States fell 25% to 22.2 tonnes, the sharpest percentage decline among the major markets and one that has attracted almost no comment in a trade that has spent the summer describing American demand as the strong lane. Global fabrication came to 278.2 tonnes against 335.3 tonnes a year earlier.
Consumers in the world's largest gold jewellery market bought roughly 30% less metal and paid roughly 11% more for it.
§3The American line nobody quoted.
That American figure deserves separating out, because it sits awkwardly beside the retail data. Tenoris put United States jewellery revenue up 13% in June and about 9% across the half, and Bain named jewellery the strongest category in luxury. Both can be true alongside a 25% fall in gold tonnage, because revenue is measured in dollars and fabrication is measured in grams. What the two together describe is an American counter selling roughly the same money through materially less metal, which is exactly the substitution the price has been forcing everywhere else.
The tonnage series is now the only honest measure of jewellery demand, and it is the one nobody quotes. Value figures rise mechanically with the metal and will keep printing records for as long as gold holds above $4,000 an ounce, which makes them useless for judging whether anyone is actually buying. China at its lowest second quarter in twenty-two years, on a value line that rose, is the cleanest example available of a market that looks healthy in money and is contracting in metal. Price your inventory in grams and read the press releases in dollars.
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The smallest jewellery quarter since the pandemic.