De Beers' rough price index falls 20% as sales volume nearly doubles
Third-quarter output fell 11% to 6.8 million carats as Orapa and Venetia slowed. Rough sales rose 4% to $731m, and 2026 guidance rises to 25–28 million carats with all of Gahcho Kué.
By Carat Capital
What changed
Prices fell as volume rose. De Beers' rough price index fell 20% year on year in the third quarter, while consolidated sales volume rose 91% and sales revenue 4%.
What it means
- If you buy at the Sights: The index fell 6% on the second quarter, though De Beers reports signs of stability.
- If you plan Q4 supply: Jwaneng maintenance is expected to cut output well below third-quarter rates.
- What this is not: A clean price read. The average fell 45%, the index 20%; we read the gap as mix.
Key figures
| Rough price index, Q3down 20% year on year, 6% on Q2 | 65 |
|---|---|
| Rough sales, Q3up 4% on 91% more carats | $731m |
| Carats recovered, Q3down 11% year on year | 6.8m ct |
| 2026 production guidancefrom 21–26m, 100% basis | 25–28m ct |
Source: De Beers production report for the third quarter of 2026, dated 20 October 2026, read from raw bytes, 97,156 bytes. The price index is De Beers' own, 100 at December 2006; its 2025 values are restated by De Beers for stock rebalancing. Percentage changes are De Beers' table.
Maintenance cut the output
Botswana lost most carats. Production fell 11% to 6.8 million carats. Botswana produced 4.8 million, down 20%, because of planned plant maintenance at Orapa.
Venetia is winding down. South Africa's output fell 37% to 0.4 million carats as Venetia ramped down ahead of a planned two-year pause. De Beers expects no more Venetia carats this year.
Canada doubled. Gahcho Kué's attributable output rose 108% to 1.06 million carats on planned processing of higher-grade ore.
| Measure | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carats recovered (000) | 6,807 | 7,657 | −11% | 7,781 |
| Consolidated sales volume (000 ct) | 8,713 | 4,558 | +91% | 6,038 |
| Rough sales value ($m) | 731 | 700 | +4% | 665 |
| Average realised price ($/ct) | 84 | 154 | −45% | 110 |
| Average price index | 65 | 81 | −20% | 69 |
Notes on this table
Checks on De Beers' rounded changes: 6,807 / 7,657 = 0.889, 11.1% below; 8,713 / 4,558 = 1.912, 91.2% above; 731 / 700 = 1.044, 4.4% above; 84 / 154 = 0.545, 45.5% below; 65 / 81 = 0.802, 19.8% below; 65 / 69 = 0.942, 5.8% below. Gahcho Kué is in these production figures at 51%; it moves to 100% from the fourth-quarter report.
More carats, cheaper carats
Volume carried revenue. Consolidated sales reached 8.7 million carats against 4.6 million a year earlier, bringing in $731 million from two Sights.
The quarter's average fell. The average realised price fell 45% to $84 a carat, against $154 a year earlier.
De Beers explains the year. Year to date the average fell 37% to $97. De Beers cites an 18% lower index and a more balanced sales mix.
The index fell less. The price index, an average across the period's Sights, stood at 65 against 81 a year earlier and 69 in the second quarter.
Gahcho Kué lifts the guidance
Ownership changed hands. De Beers took full ownership of Gahcho Kué on 16 October by enforcing security over Mountain Province's 49% interest. It will report the mine at 100% from the fourth quarter.
Guidance rose. Production guidance for 2026 moves to 25–28 million carats, from 21–26 million. De Beers says the change reflects the Gahcho Kué ownership, not new global supply.
Costs fell too. Unit cost guidance drops to about $70 a carat from about $80, on Gahcho Kué's larger share, the Venetia pause and cost control.
What to watch
- Q4 2026Planned plant maintenance at Jwaneng, which De Beers expects to cut output substantially from third-quarter rates.
- Next SightWhether the price index holds at 65 or falls again.
- Q4 2026 reportThe first quarter with Gahcho Kué at 100%, which raises De Beers' reported carats without adding to world supply.
The story so far
Go deeper
Corrections
Correction, 21 October 2026: this article as published set De Beers' explanation, a lower price index and a more balanced sales mix, under the third quarter's 45% fall to $84 a carat, and said mix moved that average. De Beers gives that explanation for the year-to-date average, which fell 37% to $97 a carat as the index fell 18%; its report says 'The YTD consolidated average realised price declined by 37% to $97/carat'. The page now prints the year-to-date figures beside De Beers' sentence and labels the quarter's reading as ours. It also described the index as tracking like-for-like rough, a phrase the report does not use; it now gives De Beers' own definition. Source re-read on 21 October from the 97,156 bytes saved on 20 October. What was right as published: every figure in the article.
What would change this call
A rise in the price index at the next Sights. Then the third quarter's 20% fall marks the bottom of the cycle, and the 91% volume rise reads as restocking at a low.
How the De Beers price index works
The index averages De Beers' rough prices across the Sights in a period, relative to 100 at December 2006. The average realised price also moves with the mix of goods sold; De Beers attributes the year-to-date fall to both. The 2025 values are restated to include the effect of De Beers' stock rebalancing.
Method
De Beers, 'Production report for the third quarter of 2026', fetched 20 October 2026 at https://www.debeersgroup.com/news-insights/latest-group-news/2026/production-report-for-the-third-quarter-of-2026, 200, 97,156 bytes; the body is dated 20 Oct 2026 (the string returns 3 hits). Greps on the saved copy: '6,807' 2, '7,657' 2, '7,781' 2, '8,713' 1, '4,558' 1, '731' 2, '4,830' 3, '1,064' 4, '108%' 4, '(20)%' 5, '(45)%' 1, '16 October 2026' 1, '49%' 1, '25–28 million' 1, '21-26' 1, 'c.$70/carat' 1, 'signs of stability' 1, 'substantially decrease' 1, 'no further carat production' 1. Index cells '>65<' 1, '>81<' 1, '>69<' 1. The second-quarter column was checked against De Beers' Q2 report, fetched the same morning, 123,318 bytes: Q2 $110 a carat and index 69 match. ARCHIVE, by entity and period: Carat Capital's archive, 'De Beers' 'third quarter' 0 rows; '6,807' 0 rows; 'De Beers' 'production' 18 rows, newest 2026-10-08 (Namibia), 2026-07-31 (H1 results) and 2026-07-24 de-beers-eighty-eight-up, opened, which covers Q2 2026. Ours 24 July covers Q2 2026 (7.8m carats, $665m); this covers Q3 2026 (6.8m carats, $731m). DIFFERENT PERIOD, ADVANCED. 'Gahcho' 6 rows; 2026-10-03 de-beers-takes-all-of-gahcho-kue, opened, covers the agreement; the 16 October effective date is new here. Re-read 21 October 2026 from the same 97,156 bytes: 'YTD consolidated average realised price declined by 37% to $97/carat' 1 hit, '18% decrease in the average rough price index' 1, 'like-for-like' 0. The reading that mix explains much of the quarter's gap is Carat Capital's; the report gives no separate reason for the quarter.