Census puts September retail sales at $745.0bn, up 0.8%
Sales were 6.3% above September 2025. A 28 September annual revision restated August at $739.3bn, against $773.9bn first published, and the release carries no jewellery line.
By Carat Capital
What changed
Spending rose again. US retail and food services sales rose 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, the Census Bureau's advance estimate shows. August's gain was revised up to 1.3%.
What it means
- If you compare months: Use the revised series: August is $739.3 billion, not the $773.9 billion first printed.
- If you sell jewellery: There is no jewellery line. NRF's clothing and accessories group, which includes jewellery, rose 2.2% on the year.
- What this is not: A weaker August. Census revised its history.
Key figures
| September sales±0.4 points on the month | $745.0bn |
|---|---|
| Year on year±0.5 points | +6.3% |
| August, revisedfirst printed at $773.9bn | $739.3bn |
| July to Septemberon the same months of 2025 | +5.5% |
Source: US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026, CB26-165, released 15 October 2026 08:30 EDT. Seasonally adjusted, not adjusted for prices. Raw bytes, 184,928 bytes.
The series was rebased
History moved on 28 September. Census revised monthly retail estimates using its 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey. The August release now says it no longer carries the latest estimates.
The year looks firmer. Sales were 6.3% above September 2025. July to September ran 5.5% above the same months a year earlier.
August sits lower. August stands at $739.3 billion in the October release, 4.5% below the $773.9 billion first printed.
| Month | Level | Monthly change | Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | $745.0bn | +0.8% (±0.4) | CB26-165, 15 Oct |
| August 2026, revised | $739.3bn | +1.3% (±0.1) | CB26-165, 15 Oct |
| August 2026, advance | $773.9bn | +1.2% (±0.4) | CB26-153, 16 Sep |
| July 2026, as revised in September | $764.5bn | −0.5% (±0.2) | CB26-153, 16 Sep |
Notes on this table
Carat Capital's division: 739.3 / 773.9 = 0.955, so the revised August level is 4.5% below its advance print. CB26-165 says August's monthly change was revised from up 1.1% to up 1.3%; CB26-153 had printed 1.2%. The 1.1% is the figure carried after the 28 September annual revision, which Census says restated monthly estimates on its 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey. The July and August levels in different rows sit on different bases and should not be compared with each other.
Jewellery has no line
No category exists. The advance release publishes no jewellery store category, so the trade reads it only as a measure of overall demand.
NRF's proxy rose. NRF's card-based data put clothing and accessories, which includes jewellery, up 2.2% on the year and 0.5% on the month, Rapaport reports.
What to watch
- 17 NovemberOctober's advance estimate, the first month of the holiday quarter.
- November–DecemberWhether holiday spending tracks NRF's $1.013 trillion forecast.
- OngoingFurther revisions to August and September in the next two releases.
The story so far
Go deeper
What would change this call
A large downward revision to September in the 17 November release. That would turn a second monthly gain into a flat quarter.
How the advance estimate is built
Census surveys a sample of retailers about two weeks after each month ends and publishes an advance estimate, adjusted for season, holidays and trading days but not for prices. It is revised in the following two releases and rebased each year on the annual survey.
Method
Census CB26-165, https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf, fetched 19 October 2026, 200, 184,928 bytes, and CB26-153, https://www2.census.gov/retail/releases/historical/marts/adv2608.pdf, 200, 375,380 bytes, both. Grep on the extracted text: CB26-165 '745.0' 2 hits, '739.3' 1, '6.3 percent' 1, '5.5 percent' 1, '1.3 percent' 1, 'September 28, 2026' 1; CB26-153 '773.9' 2, '1.2 percent' 2, '764.5' 1. Neither release text contains 'jewel'. The NRF clothing and accessories figure is from Rapaport's 18 October report, read from its RSS feed body (rapfeed.xml, 54,832 bytes): '2.2%' 1 hit. Rapaport rounds the yearly rise to 6% and gives July to September as 6%; Census prints 6.3% and 5.5%, and Census is printed here. Carat Capital's 24 September report printed $773.9bn, which CB26-153 carried and which was correct as published; the revision is disclosed here, not corrected there. ARCHIVE: seven-seventy-three-nine-in-august covers August; this covers September. ADVANCED.
Sources
- US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026, CB26-165
- US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August 2026, CB26-153 (with its notice of revision)
- Rapaport, US Retail Sales Continue to Rise in September (read from the Rapaport RSS feed body)