Carat^Capital
Carat Capital · The trade paper of the jewelry world · Est. MMXXVI · Free to read
Diamonds Desk · London

Gem Diamonds leans on the giants while the market stays soft

Where Petra caved, Gem Diamonds' Letšeng kept firing high — average prices rose about 17% to roughly $1,501 a carat, and a 191.82-carat white recovery led a run of exceptional stones that carried its numbers.

Engraving — CC graphics deskCC/07-29
By the numbers · Gem Diamonds, Letšeng
~$1,501
avg price / carat
+17%
on the quarter
191.82ct
Type IIa white
$32,908
per ct, 52.24ct sale
4
stones over $1M
WHERE VALUE DEFENDS ITSELFLARGE / EXCEPTIONAL+17% / ctCOMMERCIAL GOODSsoftGEM DIAMONDS, 2026. LARGE-STONE REALIZATIONS VS THE COMMERCIAL MARKET.
Plate I — Carat Capital graphics desk.  CC/2026/146

§1A different strategy, a different result.

The same market that flattened Petra rewarded a different strategy at Gem Diamonds, and the split is the story. Where Petra's smaller goods dragged, Gem's Letšeng mine in Lesotho — the highest dollar-per-carat kimberlite in the world — kept producing the giant, high-value stones that trade in a market of their own. Average prices rose about seventeen percent to roughly $1,501 a carat, and higher realizations offset a lower volume of stones sold.

The trophies did the work. Gem recovered a 191.82-carat Type IIa white and a 100.71-carat faint-yellow diamond, and a single parcel of ten stones larger than 10.8 carats brought in $7 million; four individual stones cleared a million dollars apiece. One 52.24-carat white sold at $32,908 a carat. In a downturn that has punished commodity goods, a handful of exceptional rocks can still make a producer's quarter.

§2The barbell in natural stones.

That is the quiet lesson of this diamond cycle. The pain has fallen almost entirely on the melee and the near-commercial sizes, where lab-grown competition and thin sentiment bite hardest; the very top of the natural pyramid — the rare, large, certifiably scarce — has held its footing because nothing manufactured competes with it. Two African miners reported into the same soft tape and posted opposite results, and the difference was the size of the stones in the bucket.

Two African miners reported into the same soft tape and posted opposite results, and the difference was the size of the stones in the bucket.
— The Rough Desk

§3Scarcity you can weigh.

It is not a model everyone can copy. Letšeng's economics rest on a geological accident, an orebody that throws off big stones at a rate rivals cannot match, and a producer without that luck cannot simply choose to sell giants. But it does mark where value is defending itself in natural diamonds, and it is the case the trade will make to a nervous consumer: scarcity you can weigh.

The Desk’s ViewDiamonds

The barbell in diamonds is now unmistakable — the top holds and the middle sags — and Gem Diamonds is the cleanest expression of the strong end.

The risk is concentration, because a quarter that depends on a few exceptional recoveries also depends on the mine cooperating, and geology keeps its own calendar.

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