CaratThirty-pointers run while the one-carat stalls
The RapNet index for 0.30-carat diamonds rose 4.2% in June, up from 2.1% in May, and 0.50-carat goods added 1.3%, while the one-carat slipped 0.7%. The recovery is real, and it is happening at the bottom of the carat scale.
The diamond recovery has a size, and the size is small. The RapNet Diamond Index for 0.30-carat stones rose 4.2% in June, accelerating from a 2.1% gain in May, and half-carat goods added 1.3%, while the one-carat index slipped 0.7% on the month. Three-carat stones edged back to positive at 0.4%.
When the thirty-pointer moves before the one-carat, it is telling you the recovery is being made in the back office, not the boutique. Watch the half-carat into IIJS, because if the smalls hold their gains through a restocked August, the middle of the book is next, and the middle is where the money is.
| Figure | |
|---|---|
| 0.30ct | +4.2% |
| 0.50ct | +1.3% |
| 3.00ct | +0.4% |
| 1.00ct | −0.7% |
ISmall stones, real gains
The turn is genuine, but it is running from the bottom of the scale upward, not the top down.
The engine is scarcity, not exuberance. Sustained inventory reductions have let dealers correct small-stone prices upward, helped by steady United States retail demand through June and healthy Hong Kong counters at Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook.
Indian wholesalers expect activity to firm further into the August IIJS Premiere show in Mumbai and the October wedding season, the two dates that usually decide whether a soft summer becomes a real fourth quarter.
IIScarcity, not exuberance
Supply has been thinning at the source as well. De Beers cut official rough prices sharply, particularly for goods under 0.75 carats, to meet the market it actually faces, and global rough production fell 8% to 98.8 million carats in 2025, with Russia leading by value for a third straight year.
Indian manufacturers, still cautious, have kept polishing lines deliberately short rather than betting on a broad rebound.
IIIThe divergence to watch
The divergence is the story worth watching. Large stones, two carats and up in the better colors and clarities, remain the strongest sellers on the American counter, yet the price recovery is starting in the smalls, where tight inventory bites first.
A market that heals from both ends at once is rare, and this one is choosing the cheaper end to start.
01Method · the desk’s arithmetic+
RapNet Diamond Index, month-on-month, June 2026. Bars show size, not sign.
Small stones lead again as one-carat goods slip
The sub-carat book leads the diamond turn.
The trade, filed before the New York open.
Prices, tenders and the one story that moved the industry overnight. Ninety seconds.
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